1. Supply of alumina
The cost of alumina accounts for 28%-34% of the production cost of aluminum ingots . Therefore, the supply and price of alumina will directly affect the price of aluminum ingots. For example, in 2000, the international alumina spot price dropped sharply from the highest of US$450/ton at the beginning of the year to US$165-175/ton at the end of the year, while the international aluminum ingot futures price also dropped from US$1,753/ton at the beginning of the year to US$1480-1650. /Ton. The supply of alumina in China is insufficient compared to the scale of electrolytic aluminum production. The annual gap is basically between 100,000 and 1.5 million tons.
2, electricity price
The electrolytic aluminum industry is also known as the "electric tiger" industry. According to statistics, in the beginning of 2000, the world average of electricity costs as a percentage of aluminum ingots was 22.5%. Among them, 19.9% in Asia, 21.18% in Europe, 23% in the US, 23.8% in Oceania, and 24.5% in Africa. Experience in Western countries has shown that it is considered dangerous when electricity costs exceed 30% of aluminum costs. For example, since the second half of 1999, the energy crisis in the northwestern part of the United States has led to a sharp rise in electricity prices, resulting in the announcement of a reduction in production or closure of aluminum companies in the United States and Brazil. China's average electricity consumption per ton of aluminum is 16,000 degrees, the average electricity price is 0.305 yuan / KWh, the proportion of aluminum electricity costs per ton of aluminum ingots is 38%, which is higher than the foreign average of 15%, so it does not have the strength to participate in international competition. . With the promotion of various power consumption modes such as coal-fired aluminum joint venture, hydropower aluminum joint venture, aluminum plant power plant, power plant aluminum plant, etc., China's aluminum power price will fall more space in the next 3-5 years, and it is expected to fall to 0.25-0.20. Yuan/degree, even lower.
3. Economic fluctuation cycle impact:
The economic fluctuation cycle is one of the important factors affecting the price trend of non-ferrous metals . The economic crisis in Asia in 1997 and the continuous decline of the US economy since the first half of 2000 directly led to a sharp decline in global non-ferrous metals prices. The recovery of the Asian economy in early 1999 once led to a rebound in the price of non-ferrous metals. In addition, changes in international exchange rates, fluctuations in oil prices, power crisis and the impact of industrial policies will have an impact on primary aluminum prices.
4. Impact of import and export tariffs:
China actively encourages exports while importing a considerable amount of alumina and electrolytic aluminum each year. At present, the import tariff rate of alumina is 18%, and the provisional tariff rate is 6%. Under the condition that the basic tariff rate of electrolytic aluminum is 9%, China's aluminum industry still has the ability to participate in the domestic market competition, but after joining the WTO The adjustment of import and export tariffs will make domestic aluminum producers face greater pressure from the international market competition.
5. Changes in the development trend of the aluminum industry:
At present, the per capita consumption of aluminum in the world is 5 kilograms. The per capita consumption of industrial developed countries such as the United States, Japan, Germany and other countries has reached 28 to 32 kilograms, while in China only 3 kilograms, it can be seen that the consumption space of aluminum is quite large. In particular, with the rapid development of the aluminum industry in China, such as transportation, housing, cars, and power grid transformation, it will have a positive impact on the demand and price of industrial aluminum profiles .
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